XXXI International Mineral Processing Congress 2024 Proceedings/Washington, DC/Sep 29–Oct 3 3
transitioning from largely hydrocarbon dependent energy
generation to a range of low carbon energy technological
solutions. There are numerous estimates of the magnitude
of this increase in demand as we move towards achiev-
ing net zero emissions which will vary with how quickly
society can decarbonise. One thing these estimates have
in common is they predict large increases in demand for
minerals and metals that are directly used in energy genera-
tion, transport and storage, and many of these minerals are
regarded as critical in most assessments. The International
Energy Agency, IEA provides a recent overview (compil-
ing data from several sources) and have demand projec-
tions focusing on the three scenarios – the Stated Policies
Scenario (STEPS), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)
and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario (IEA
2024) (Figure 2).
In summary the energy transitions will increase mineral
demand across all the three IEA scenarios. In the STEPS,
demand is estimated to double by 2030 with further, more
modest, increases by 2050. In the APS, demand is pro-
jected to more than double by 2030 and to triple by 2050.
Finally, in the NZE Scenario, the most accelerated path to
reaching the 1.5 °C target, the demand for critical minerals
is projected to nearly triple by 2030 and increase further
by 2050.
SUPPLY
Supply depends on a variety of factors and supply risk is an
explicit variable in all criticality assessments.
The supply of selected metals for the energy transition as
projected by IEA (2024) are shown in Figure 3. For cobalt,
nickel, graphite and rare earth elements, the expected sup-
ply by 2035 from both existing and announced projects
is aligned with APS. For copper the anticipated supply by
2035 falls well short of meeting the APS requirements and
lithium is projected to develop an even larger gap. Such
supply shortfalls represent a significant risk in terms of
accessing raw minerals if decarbonation polices are to be
met. There is also the additional burden to mining regions,
which may see a rapid increase in mineral extraction requir-
ing careful resources management and governance to ensure
the energy transition is achieved equitably. Additionally,
for all energy technology metals, sourcing from secondary
resources is becoming increasingly important in securing
supply. However, recycling and re-use will only have a sig-
nificant impact on supply chains once demand there is a
plentiful stock of secondary material to meet demands.
HOW TO SUCCEED?
In principle, the only way for supply to meet demand
(of any resource) is to change one to meet the other. The
From Josso et al., 2023
Figure 1. New UK Criticality assessment methodology
transitioning from largely hydrocarbon dependent energy
generation to a range of low carbon energy technological
solutions. There are numerous estimates of the magnitude
of this increase in demand as we move towards achiev-
ing net zero emissions which will vary with how quickly
society can decarbonise. One thing these estimates have
in common is they predict large increases in demand for
minerals and metals that are directly used in energy genera-
tion, transport and storage, and many of these minerals are
regarded as critical in most assessments. The International
Energy Agency, IEA provides a recent overview (compil-
ing data from several sources) and have demand projec-
tions focusing on the three scenarios – the Stated Policies
Scenario (STEPS), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)
and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario (IEA
2024) (Figure 2).
In summary the energy transitions will increase mineral
demand across all the three IEA scenarios. In the STEPS,
demand is estimated to double by 2030 with further, more
modest, increases by 2050. In the APS, demand is pro-
jected to more than double by 2030 and to triple by 2050.
Finally, in the NZE Scenario, the most accelerated path to
reaching the 1.5 °C target, the demand for critical minerals
is projected to nearly triple by 2030 and increase further
by 2050.
SUPPLY
Supply depends on a variety of factors and supply risk is an
explicit variable in all criticality assessments.
The supply of selected metals for the energy transition as
projected by IEA (2024) are shown in Figure 3. For cobalt,
nickel, graphite and rare earth elements, the expected sup-
ply by 2035 from both existing and announced projects
is aligned with APS. For copper the anticipated supply by
2035 falls well short of meeting the APS requirements and
lithium is projected to develop an even larger gap. Such
supply shortfalls represent a significant risk in terms of
accessing raw minerals if decarbonation polices are to be
met. There is also the additional burden to mining regions,
which may see a rapid increase in mineral extraction requir-
ing careful resources management and governance to ensure
the energy transition is achieved equitably. Additionally,
for all energy technology metals, sourcing from secondary
resources is becoming increasingly important in securing
supply. However, recycling and re-use will only have a sig-
nificant impact on supply chains once demand there is a
plentiful stock of secondary material to meet demands.
HOW TO SUCCEED?
In principle, the only way for supply to meet demand
(of any resource) is to change one to meet the other. The
From Josso et al., 2023
Figure 1. New UK Criticality assessment methodology