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Critical Minerals for the Energy Transition
Karen Hanghøj
British Geological Survey
ABSTRACT: Mineral raw materials are important for society in general, and for the transition to a green
economy in particular. They are key for achieving the goals set out in COP21, the Paris agreement and equitable
access to minerals underpins many of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
When a mineral is both essential in use and subject to supply risk it is considered critical. Emerging energy
and mobility technologies have created a strong demand for certain raw materials which will dramatically
exceed current production in the next decades. Potential supply restrictions and lack of access to these materials
might negatively impact the energy transition, and the downstream supply chains significantly. Sustainable and
responsible sourcing of these metals is thus going to important on a global level in the decades ahead.
To meet these challenges, we need to design smarter solutions for the responsible extraction, processing and use/
repairing/recycling of raw materials from both primary and secondary sources. Furthermore, we must ensure
that used materials and products find their way into new product lifecycles in an energetically and economically
meaningful way. We need to maintain products and materials in the economy as long as possible through waste
valorisation, industrial symbiosis, reuse, repairing, remanufacturing and recycling.
WHAT IS CRITICALITY?
Critically is used to indicate both importance and supply
risk and it will be different depending on the perspective
and the methodology applied reflecting the needs, priori-
ties and access to resources of the user. Typically, criticality
is assessed on a national or regional level, but it can also be
assessed for specific industry sectors or even specific com-
panies and products. The first UK criticality list was pub-
lished in 2021, using a methodology aligned with that of
the USGS (Nassar et al. 2020, Nassar and Fortier 2021),
for determining global supply risk and the UK economic
vulnerability. Three indicators were used to estimate supply
risk: production concentration, companion metal fraction
and recycling rate. Economic vulnerability was calculated
from six indicators: production evolution, price volatility,
substitutability, global trade concentration, UK import
reliance and UK gross value-added contribution, (Lusty et
al., 2021). A revised methodology has recently been devel-
oped, discontinuing the price volatility and substitutabil-
ity indicators, and modifying how several of the remaining
indicators are calculated, notably adding a foresight and an
ESG (environmental, social, and governance) component
to the assessment (Josso et al. 2023 and Figure 1). The UK
assessment using the revised criteria is in preparation.
DEMAND
Raw materials are essential for all aspects of society, for
infrastructure, transportation, and energy. The ambitious
global goal to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, means that
we need to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. As a result,
in the future we will become increasingly reliant on access
to a growing number of mineral raw materials, as we are
Critical Minerals for the Energy Transition
Karen Hanghøj
British Geological Survey
ABSTRACT: Mineral raw materials are important for society in general, and for the transition to a green
economy in particular. They are key for achieving the goals set out in COP21, the Paris agreement and equitable
access to minerals underpins many of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
When a mineral is both essential in use and subject to supply risk it is considered critical. Emerging energy
and mobility technologies have created a strong demand for certain raw materials which will dramatically
exceed current production in the next decades. Potential supply restrictions and lack of access to these materials
might negatively impact the energy transition, and the downstream supply chains significantly. Sustainable and
responsible sourcing of these metals is thus going to important on a global level in the decades ahead.
To meet these challenges, we need to design smarter solutions for the responsible extraction, processing and use/
repairing/recycling of raw materials from both primary and secondary sources. Furthermore, we must ensure
that used materials and products find their way into new product lifecycles in an energetically and economically
meaningful way. We need to maintain products and materials in the economy as long as possible through waste
valorisation, industrial symbiosis, reuse, repairing, remanufacturing and recycling.
WHAT IS CRITICALITY?
Critically is used to indicate both importance and supply
risk and it will be different depending on the perspective
and the methodology applied reflecting the needs, priori-
ties and access to resources of the user. Typically, criticality
is assessed on a national or regional level, but it can also be
assessed for specific industry sectors or even specific com-
panies and products. The first UK criticality list was pub-
lished in 2021, using a methodology aligned with that of
the USGS (Nassar et al. 2020, Nassar and Fortier 2021),
for determining global supply risk and the UK economic
vulnerability. Three indicators were used to estimate supply
risk: production concentration, companion metal fraction
and recycling rate. Economic vulnerability was calculated
from six indicators: production evolution, price volatility,
substitutability, global trade concentration, UK import
reliance and UK gross value-added contribution, (Lusty et
al., 2021). A revised methodology has recently been devel-
oped, discontinuing the price volatility and substitutabil-
ity indicators, and modifying how several of the remaining
indicators are calculated, notably adding a foresight and an
ESG (environmental, social, and governance) component
to the assessment (Josso et al. 2023 and Figure 1). The UK
assessment using the revised criteria is in preparation.
DEMAND
Raw materials are essential for all aspects of society, for
infrastructure, transportation, and energy. The ambitious
global goal to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, means that
we need to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. As a result,
in the future we will become increasingly reliant on access
to a growing number of mineral raw materials, as we are