8 XXXI International Mineral Processing Congress 2024 Proceedings/Washington, DC/Sep 29–Oct 3
than an equivalent gas-fired generator system. This excludes
materials required for grid transmission and storage (IEA,
2021). In terms of technologies for the energy transition,
Figure 1 shows some of the expected demand of critical
rare earth elements needed for e-transportation (in terms
of kg/vehicle) for (b) energy power generation (in terms of
kg/MW). In most cases the technologies require a range of
elements to be functional, suggesting that the risk issues
that the weakest commodity supply chains will attract the
greatest attention. Figure 2 presents a view of the future
based on a comparison of annual productions rates from
2017 and in 2050. There is a myriad of underlying assump-
tions in such projections, but the core message is massive
growth in lithium, cobalt, graphite and copper is needed
and demands for twelve key metals and minerals (Sovacool
et al., 2020). Moreover, Sovacool et al. (2020) claim fol-
lowing percentage increases of 87,000% for batteries and
1000% for wind power, 3000% for photovoltaics. The
variability in estimates is large, the ability to recycle metals
at appropriate rates is in its infancy for many of the four-
teen minerals and metals and poorly understood (Reuter
et al., 2005). The expression used by the World Bank is
simply “the clean energy transition will be significantly
mineral intensive” (Lezak et al., 2019). However, the risks
for delivery of our future projected electric economy are
such that it is most likely that the sheer levels of demand
cannot currently be met! To illustrate this further, Table 1
shows metals and rare earth metals citing estimates (col-
umn 3) of the total requirement for phasing out fossil fuels
in one generation (!)compared with the global metal pro-
duction in 2019 (column 4) and hence the number of years
needed to produce the required amount of metal assuming
2019 production rates (column 5). On the face of it, is the
task feasible?
The demand for electric minerals and metals has
resulted in a fury of acquisitions and concerns over security
Source: IEA 2021
Figure 1(a). Estimated requirements for critical minerals and metals in electric transport (in kg/vehicle) (b). Estimated
requirements for critical minerals and metals in power generation technologies (in kg/MW)
(a)
(b)
than an equivalent gas-fired generator system. This excludes
materials required for grid transmission and storage (IEA,
2021). In terms of technologies for the energy transition,
Figure 1 shows some of the expected demand of critical
rare earth elements needed for e-transportation (in terms
of kg/vehicle) for (b) energy power generation (in terms of
kg/MW). In most cases the technologies require a range of
elements to be functional, suggesting that the risk issues
that the weakest commodity supply chains will attract the
greatest attention. Figure 2 presents a view of the future
based on a comparison of annual productions rates from
2017 and in 2050. There is a myriad of underlying assump-
tions in such projections, but the core message is massive
growth in lithium, cobalt, graphite and copper is needed
and demands for twelve key metals and minerals (Sovacool
et al., 2020). Moreover, Sovacool et al. (2020) claim fol-
lowing percentage increases of 87,000% for batteries and
1000% for wind power, 3000% for photovoltaics. The
variability in estimates is large, the ability to recycle metals
at appropriate rates is in its infancy for many of the four-
teen minerals and metals and poorly understood (Reuter
et al., 2005). The expression used by the World Bank is
simply “the clean energy transition will be significantly
mineral intensive” (Lezak et al., 2019). However, the risks
for delivery of our future projected electric economy are
such that it is most likely that the sheer levels of demand
cannot currently be met! To illustrate this further, Table 1
shows metals and rare earth metals citing estimates (col-
umn 3) of the total requirement for phasing out fossil fuels
in one generation (!)compared with the global metal pro-
duction in 2019 (column 4) and hence the number of years
needed to produce the required amount of metal assuming
2019 production rates (column 5). On the face of it, is the
task feasible?
The demand for electric minerals and metals has
resulted in a fury of acquisitions and concerns over security
Source: IEA 2021
Figure 1(a). Estimated requirements for critical minerals and metals in electric transport (in kg/vehicle) (b). Estimated
requirements for critical minerals and metals in power generation technologies (in kg/MW)
(a)
(b)