114 XXXI International Mineral Processing Congress 2024 Proceedings/Washington, DC/Sep 29–Oct 3
Aramendia et al. (2023) examined the options for increases
in energy demand in mining, dependent on economic
growth rates, energy intensities and recycling rates. The
conclusion of this work was that by 2040 the increase in
energy demand could rise, under the IEA defined “Beyond
2 Degrees Scenario (B2DS)” scenario, to 1.8 – 3.3 (year
2040) and 2.0 – 5.8 (year 2060) times the reference value
from 2015.
Based on the STEPS scenario for 2040, the value of
CO2e intensity is approximately 250,000t CO2e per
TWhr, which for the 1.8 to 3.3 times increases in demand
used by Aramendia et al. (2023) would equate to a range of
CO2e emissions from 82,314,000 to 150,909,000t.
If these emissions values are compared to those of
Morrell (2023) for 2019, of 134,000,000t CO2e emis-
sions, it can be seen that the absolute value for emissions,
could be lower with the smaller demand multiplier, but
slightly higher at the greater demand multiplier. The poten-
tial decrease and the slight increase are both due to the drop
in CO2e intensity counteracting the estimated increase in
energy demand.
Future projections for baseload cost are subject to a
wide range of factors, with major impacts from the mix of
energy sources, geography, climate and prevailing geopoliti-
cal assumptions.
Figure 4 shows projected average baseload electricity
prices for a range of European countries, both on an annual
and monthly basis. The projected prices are considerably
less than those currently experienced, but the seasonal
price variability is of interest. The graphs are based on the
assumption of a high proportion of solar generation and
the associated climate sensitive is likely to expose the mar-
ket to higher levels of variability, than was previously expe-
rienced with less sensitive sources. The sensitivity of supply
would however, be controlled by a range of factors includ-
ing location, climate, mix of renewables and commercial
contractual arrangements.
Therefore, in terms of energy consumption, the con-
sensus is that there will be a significant increase in the
minerals demanded to meet the energy transition, which
directly translates to increased energy demand in mining
and processing. The accompanying increase in carbon emis-
sions is potentially compensated by the reduction in carbon
intensity in power generation, providing projections can be
met in reality. In terms of future pricing, estimates all show
a significant reduction, but variables relating to source,
Source: IEA 2023 Notes: Gt CO2 – gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, g/CO2/kWh/t – grammes of carbon dioxide
per kilo-watt hour, EMDE =Emerging Market and Developing Economies, AE =Advanced Economies. In the
NZE Scenario emissions from fossil fuel combustion are counterbalanced by carbon dioxide removal through
bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.
Figure 3. Global power sector emission, 2010–2050 and CO2 intensity of electrical generation by region
and scenario, 2022 and 2030
Aramendia et al. (2023) examined the options for increases
in energy demand in mining, dependent on economic
growth rates, energy intensities and recycling rates. The
conclusion of this work was that by 2040 the increase in
energy demand could rise, under the IEA defined “Beyond
2 Degrees Scenario (B2DS)” scenario, to 1.8 – 3.3 (year
2040) and 2.0 – 5.8 (year 2060) times the reference value
from 2015.
Based on the STEPS scenario for 2040, the value of
CO2e intensity is approximately 250,000t CO2e per
TWhr, which for the 1.8 to 3.3 times increases in demand
used by Aramendia et al. (2023) would equate to a range of
CO2e emissions from 82,314,000 to 150,909,000t.
If these emissions values are compared to those of
Morrell (2023) for 2019, of 134,000,000t CO2e emis-
sions, it can be seen that the absolute value for emissions,
could be lower with the smaller demand multiplier, but
slightly higher at the greater demand multiplier. The poten-
tial decrease and the slight increase are both due to the drop
in CO2e intensity counteracting the estimated increase in
energy demand.
Future projections for baseload cost are subject to a
wide range of factors, with major impacts from the mix of
energy sources, geography, climate and prevailing geopoliti-
cal assumptions.
Figure 4 shows projected average baseload electricity
prices for a range of European countries, both on an annual
and monthly basis. The projected prices are considerably
less than those currently experienced, but the seasonal
price variability is of interest. The graphs are based on the
assumption of a high proportion of solar generation and
the associated climate sensitive is likely to expose the mar-
ket to higher levels of variability, than was previously expe-
rienced with less sensitive sources. The sensitivity of supply
would however, be controlled by a range of factors includ-
ing location, climate, mix of renewables and commercial
contractual arrangements.
Therefore, in terms of energy consumption, the con-
sensus is that there will be a significant increase in the
minerals demanded to meet the energy transition, which
directly translates to increased energy demand in mining
and processing. The accompanying increase in carbon emis-
sions is potentially compensated by the reduction in carbon
intensity in power generation, providing projections can be
met in reality. In terms of future pricing, estimates all show
a significant reduction, but variables relating to source,
Source: IEA 2023 Notes: Gt CO2 – gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, g/CO2/kWh/t – grammes of carbon dioxide
per kilo-watt hour, EMDE =Emerging Market and Developing Economies, AE =Advanced Economies. In the
NZE Scenario emissions from fossil fuel combustion are counterbalanced by carbon dioxide removal through
bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.
Figure 3. Global power sector emission, 2010–2050 and CO2 intensity of electrical generation by region
and scenario, 2022 and 2030