5
show that: a $1 increase in the price of lithium is associ-
ated with a 0.15 percentage point increase in production
(positive and statistically significant effect) a 1% increase
in global demand for lithium batteries implies a 0.12 per-
centage point increase in production (positive and signifi-
cant effect) an increase of $100 million in investments
in lithium production capacity in a country is related to
a 0.08 percentage point increase in that country’s produc-
tion (positive and significant effect) and a $100 increase in
lithium extraction costs in a country entails an estimated
0.06 percentage point decrease in that country’s production
(negative and significant effect). The model has an adjusted
R2 of 0.79, indicating good explanatory power. Using
assumptions about prices, demand, investments and costs,
production percentage projections were made for 2025 and
2030.
According to the econometric analysis presented and
considering other relevant factors, it is roughly projected
that Peru would produce between 1–2% of global lithium
in 2025, growing to 2–4% by 2030, consolidating itself
as a relevant player in the global market for this strategic
commodity.
Econometric Model
Production =β0 +β1 *Prices +β2 *Demand
+β3 *Investments +β4 *Costs +e
Coefficient
b =X'X (–1)X'y
Error coefficient:
e =Y –Xb
RMR model:
y =b0 =b1 *x1 +b2 *x2 +… +bp *xp
THE TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT OF
LITHIUM WITHIN THE GLOBAL
MARKET
In the last 10 years, lithium demand has been growing,
noting a 600% increase in the economy of this mineral as
shown in Figure 5. Global lithium consumption of 93,000
tonnes in 2021 increased 33% over the 70,000 tonnes in
2020. This is largely due to the use of lithium in recharge-
able lithium-ion batteries, particularly in electric vehicles,
which will continue to grow long-term as the world strives
to find less polluting alternatives to the use of fossil fuels.
This largely explains the operational increase in the major
producing countries such as Australia, China and the
lithium triangle (Argentina, Chile and Bolivia), and great
expectations exist for Peru’s integration into this) shown
in Table 3 we expect that by 2030 it will represent 80%
Figure 4. Annual global lithium resource potential (RMR) (own source)
show that: a $1 increase in the price of lithium is associ-
ated with a 0.15 percentage point increase in production
(positive and statistically significant effect) a 1% increase
in global demand for lithium batteries implies a 0.12 per-
centage point increase in production (positive and signifi-
cant effect) an increase of $100 million in investments
in lithium production capacity in a country is related to
a 0.08 percentage point increase in that country’s produc-
tion (positive and significant effect) and a $100 increase in
lithium extraction costs in a country entails an estimated
0.06 percentage point decrease in that country’s production
(negative and significant effect). The model has an adjusted
R2 of 0.79, indicating good explanatory power. Using
assumptions about prices, demand, investments and costs,
production percentage projections were made for 2025 and
2030.
According to the econometric analysis presented and
considering other relevant factors, it is roughly projected
that Peru would produce between 1–2% of global lithium
in 2025, growing to 2–4% by 2030, consolidating itself
as a relevant player in the global market for this strategic
commodity.
Econometric Model
Production =β0 +β1 *Prices +β2 *Demand
+β3 *Investments +β4 *Costs +e
Coefficient
b =X'X (–1)X'y
Error coefficient:
e =Y –Xb
RMR model:
y =b0 =b1 *x1 +b2 *x2 +… +bp *xp
THE TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT OF
LITHIUM WITHIN THE GLOBAL
MARKET
In the last 10 years, lithium demand has been growing,
noting a 600% increase in the economy of this mineral as
shown in Figure 5. Global lithium consumption of 93,000
tonnes in 2021 increased 33% over the 70,000 tonnes in
2020. This is largely due to the use of lithium in recharge-
able lithium-ion batteries, particularly in electric vehicles,
which will continue to grow long-term as the world strives
to find less polluting alternatives to the use of fossil fuels.
This largely explains the operational increase in the major
producing countries such as Australia, China and the
lithium triangle (Argentina, Chile and Bolivia), and great
expectations exist for Peru’s integration into this) shown
in Table 3 we expect that by 2030 it will represent 80%
Figure 4. Annual global lithium resource potential (RMR) (own source)