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24-086
The Potential of Lithium: Peruvian Case
Alexander Darío Huamán Ccorahua
UNAMBA, Mining Engineering Department,
Apurímac, Perú
Jhonatan Raphael Rojas Ventura
UNAMBA, Mining Engineering Department,
Apurímac, Perú
Cayo Fernando Soto Buendía
UNAMBA, Mining Engineering Department,
Apurímac, Perú
ABSTRACT
Lithium is a top-quality mineral in the energy market, with
growing demand. It has many applications in medical,
nuclear, and energy industries. The purpose of this article
is to quantify and analyze the economic potential and pro-
jected global demand for lithium annually. It aims to deter-
mine Peru’s (specifically Puno) positioning in the global
context in 2025 and 2030. The article also seeks to identify
the main regulatory, environmental, and social challenges
to sustainably exploit lithium in Peru.
The study employs applied research (mixed approach),
descriptive-correlational scope, and observational, cross-
sectional design. The methodology demonstrates the use
of statistical techniques to model and make predictions
about this energy-transition metal. Academic sources were
reviewed to enable a comparative approach and projection
into the future of lithium for development in the mining
industry.
In the last 10 years, lithium demand has grown, not-
ing a 600% increase in the economy and projected annual
growth of +26%. Exponential growth in resources is pro-
jected, where econometric, R-multivariable and R-linear
models estimate that Peru could supply 1.5% in 2025 and
3% in 2030 of global lithium. Estimated growth of 5–15%
in socio-environmental conflicts is projected with the start
of lithium exploitation (Peru – Puno).
The global potential of lithium demonstrates exponen-
tial growth. Lithium reserves in Puno -Peru would rank
13th between 2025 and 2030. It is necessary to establish
a clear regulatory framework to avoid excessive increase in
socio-environmental conflicts.
Nomenclature
Symbol Definition
α Estimated annual growth rate
b Exponential growth base
y Dependent variable (number of articles)
x Independent variable (year)
a Constant
y1 Initial value (2015)
y
2 Final value (2022)
x
1 Initial year (2015)
x2 Final year (2022)
X Matrix of independent variable data
y Vector of dependent variable data
X' Transposed matrix of X
X'X–1 Inverse matrix of X'X
ε Error term
Y Dependent variable (production %)
Price Lithium price (in dollars)
Demand Global demand for lithium batteries
Investments Investments in lithium production capacity
(in million dollars)
Costs Lithium extraction cost in the country
(in dollars per ton)
β
0 Constant term
β1, β2, β3, β4 Estimated coefficients
24-086
The Potential of Lithium: Peruvian Case
Alexander Darío Huamán Ccorahua
UNAMBA, Mining Engineering Department,
Apurímac, Perú
Jhonatan Raphael Rojas Ventura
UNAMBA, Mining Engineering Department,
Apurímac, Perú
Cayo Fernando Soto Buendía
UNAMBA, Mining Engineering Department,
Apurímac, Perú
ABSTRACT
Lithium is a top-quality mineral in the energy market, with
growing demand. It has many applications in medical,
nuclear, and energy industries. The purpose of this article
is to quantify and analyze the economic potential and pro-
jected global demand for lithium annually. It aims to deter-
mine Peru’s (specifically Puno) positioning in the global
context in 2025 and 2030. The article also seeks to identify
the main regulatory, environmental, and social challenges
to sustainably exploit lithium in Peru.
The study employs applied research (mixed approach),
descriptive-correlational scope, and observational, cross-
sectional design. The methodology demonstrates the use
of statistical techniques to model and make predictions
about this energy-transition metal. Academic sources were
reviewed to enable a comparative approach and projection
into the future of lithium for development in the mining
industry.
In the last 10 years, lithium demand has grown, not-
ing a 600% increase in the economy and projected annual
growth of +26%. Exponential growth in resources is pro-
jected, where econometric, R-multivariable and R-linear
models estimate that Peru could supply 1.5% in 2025 and
3% in 2030 of global lithium. Estimated growth of 5–15%
in socio-environmental conflicts is projected with the start
of lithium exploitation (Peru – Puno).
The global potential of lithium demonstrates exponen-
tial growth. Lithium reserves in Puno -Peru would rank
13th between 2025 and 2030. It is necessary to establish
a clear regulatory framework to avoid excessive increase in
socio-environmental conflicts.
Nomenclature
Symbol Definition
α Estimated annual growth rate
b Exponential growth base
y Dependent variable (number of articles)
x Independent variable (year)
a Constant
y1 Initial value (2015)
y
2 Final value (2022)
x
1 Initial year (2015)
x2 Final year (2022)
X Matrix of independent variable data
y Vector of dependent variable data
X' Transposed matrix of X
X'X–1 Inverse matrix of X'X
ε Error term
Y Dependent variable (production %)
Price Lithium price (in dollars)
Demand Global demand for lithium batteries
Investments Investments in lithium production capacity
(in million dollars)
Costs Lithium extraction cost in the country
(in dollars per ton)
β
0 Constant term
β1, β2, β3, β4 Estimated coefficients